An Interesting Election

As a political science nerd (one of my many interesting if worthless degrees), I have been following the Presidential election cycle in America these last several months with both fascination and revulsion. As a leftover Jeffersonian agrarian that does not really fit into either major party much anymore, I was forced yet again to hold my nose and vote for the lesser of two evils. I did the mail-in voting thing just because I like to have time to think and ponder my physical ballot and not be pressured cattle car style through an election booth. I last voted in person on election day in 2020 when the election poll workers were all wearing yellow Class 1 Hazmat Suits in what was quite possibly the most dystopian looking civic exercise I have ever been party to. 

I have over the last few years taken an interest in polling methodology. Modern elections and political commentary seem to live or die on polling data. The art of polling is this interesting amalgam of scientific surveys, psychology, statistical data analysis, and (often) outright alchemistic flim flammery. There are some reputable polling firms and pollsters honestly trying to get an accurate snapshot in time of the electorate, but many are shockingly manipulative political tools that try to shape public opinion by showing candidate X or issue Y is clearly winning. Why even bother voting for Candidate Z or Issue A? This is the great and powerful Pollster OZ, so pay no attention to the man behind the curtain.

In my much younger days, I was involved in a few political campaigns. In those days, we naively took polling at face value that they were "scientific," not ever believing polls and pollsters would use their craft for their own political agendas. My faith in polling began to crumble in 2000 when Bush v. Gore blew up the polling data. My home state of Tennessee ended up going to Bush, when though it was Gore's home state. Polls even up to election night largely said Gore had Tennessee in the bag, but, lo and behold, the polls were wrong. 

I largely got out of politics thereafter as I kind of got disillusioned by both major parties in the aftermath of 9/11 and the War on Terror. I still keep up with contemporary politics as an observer and I vote, though on the federal level it often degenerates into a choice of the lesser of two evils. I have to admit I thought America had hit rock bottom in 2016 with Cheeto I v. Wicked Witch. This was eclipsed by Cheeto II v. Corpse in 2020. And then this year, Cheeto III vs. Chef Word Salad. This after Corpse politically and possibly physically died on Live TV debate. So, as most everyone, including apparently the Pennsylvania Amish, knows, 45 will become 47, and the Word Salad will no doubt take the fall and vanish from the political scene like Yoda, when he dies in Return of the Jedi.       

What's interesting is, again, most of the polling going into the election was largely wrong. There were a few polls that came close, but the vast major of the major poll, either said it was too close to call or Harris was somehow magically in the lead. Neither of these, as it turned out, were particularly accurate. Trump pretty much cleaned house. As of this writing two days after the election, Arizona and Nevada have yet to be officially called because they are still counting. I remain mystified as to why Arizona takes so long, as they are still only at 70% of precincts reporting two days after the election, having appeared to have taken all of Wednesday off. At least Nevada is at about 98% counting but likely waiting on a few mail in ballots. 

As such, there is much wailing and gnashing of teeth amongst Democrats and cocky exuberance amongst Republicans this morning. I am curious whether either side will do any real soul searching reflection over the coming months or year. Republicans have taken the Senate and might take the House. Democrats seemed to have been thrown into outer darkness. My hot take is that Republicans have now been given enough rope to hang themselves, and Democrats need to learn to not rely on their own propaganda puff polling and stop with the hyperbole: Trump is not a fascist/Hitler/whatever and the economy is not the greatest economy in the history of the world. Both sides can learn and not repeat their previous mistakes, or they can rinse and repeat. The cynical part of me expects the latter and not the former. 

Perhaps I should poll my psyche on that.